What are the best land use combinations to meet the social and economic needs of developing nations without jeopardising the ability of natural systems to deliver their life-support functions? Based on theoretical analysis and original case study material, this book attempts to answer this question by studying the interactions between economic forces which can lead to land use changes and the subsequent loss of biodiversity. Raffaello Cervigni examines the policy options and management practices that may counteract these losses and encourage the development of sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation. Biodiversity in the Balance summarises the scientific and economic debate and highlights disagreements about the definitions of biodiversity management objectives. The author goes on to develop an original analytical treatment of the incremental cost financing mechanisms adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Significantly, he undertakes a microeconomic study of land use change in a biosphere reserve in South-East Mexico. Based on an original data set, the author presents a detailed modelling exercise of resource and land use choices at the individual farm level with related projections of the impact at both community and regional levels. Techniques used include multi-period linear programming and dynamic stock-flow simulation. The book concludes by addressing policy implications and options for future research. This book will be of interest to graduate students, researchers and professionals in a variety of disciplines including economics, natural resource studies, social studies, geography and land planning. The book will also be of value to the large environmental NGO community.

This book publication evaluates, using for the first time a single consistent methodology and the state-of-the-arte climate scenarios, the impacts of climate change on hydro-power and irrigation expansion plans in Africa's main rivers basins (Niger, Senegal, Volta, Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Orange); and outlines an approach to reduce climate risks through suitable adjustments to the planning and design process. The book finds that failure to integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure could entail, in scenarios of drying climate conditions, losses of hydropower revenues between 5% and 60% (depending on the basin); and increases in consumer expenditure for energy up to 3 times the corresponding baseline values. In in wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infrastructure development could lead to foregone revenues in the range of 15% to 130% of the baseline, to the extent that the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower. Despite the large uncertainty on whether drier or wetter conditions will prevail in the future in Africa, the book finds that by modifying existing investment plans to explicitly handle the risk of large climate swings, can cut in half or more the cost that would accrue by building infrastructure on the basis of the climate of the past.

If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria s current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20: 2020. But there is a lot that can be done, starting now, to avoid such a damaging outcome. This is the overarching message of Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria. The likely impacts of climate change include the following: Long-term reduction in crop yields of 20 30 percent Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods and pastoralism Large increases in food imports Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest Long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent The impacts may be worse if economic diversification away from agriculture happens more slowly than anticipated by Vision 20: 2020, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of rising temperatures on rain-fed agriculture. Equally important, the study argues that investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate data may end up being wrong: projects that ignore climate change may be under- or over-designed, with economic losses of 20-40 percent of capital invested in irrigation or hydropower projects. For the past two years, the Federal Government of Nigeria and the World Bank have collaborated to analyze the specific challenges posed by climate change in agriculture and water resources management, with a view to identifying viable solutions for adaptation. This effort has brought together participants from government, academia, the private sector, and civil society. Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria spells out the technological and management options available to Nigeria for achieving climate resilience. In particular, the book explores a first not just for Nigeria but also for Sub-Saharan Africa--the application of a robust decision-making approach to enhance the resilience of key sectors such as irrigation and hydropower. The study proposes 10 practical, short-term priority actions, as well as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to mitigate the threat posed by climate change. Building climate resilience will increasingly be central to Nigeria s efforts to achieve the aspirational goals the nation has set for itself in the Vision 20: 2020 documents. This study provides practical, evidence-based solutions to inform and nurture the debate and inform policy making for sustainable national development."

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted Vision 20: 2020 an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world s 20th largest economy by 2020. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth in key carbon-emitting sectors with a reduced carbon footprint, emission of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades. To evaluate how to achieve the objectives of Vision 20: 2020 with reduced carbon emissions, the Federal Government of Nigeria and the World Bank undertook a multiyear program of analytical work. The summary results of this program are contained in a separate book (published in the World Bank s Directions in Development series) entitled Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria, which concludes that Nigeria can achieve its development objectives, while stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels and providing domestic benefi ts on the order of 2 percent of GDP. This volume is a collection of the background technical reports on the four sectors of inquiry: agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport. It contains details on the data, methodology, and assumptions used throughout the analysis. For agriculture and land use, the study team developed an agriculture production growth model, which permits the evaluation of sector emissions in both a reference and a low-carbon scenario. The study fi nds that low-carbon practices have signifi cant potential to make the sector more productive and more climate-resilient. For the oil and gas sector, the analysis assesses the potential of accelerated phase-put of gas fl aring, reduction of leakages, and increased energy effi ciency in the operation of facilities, to both reduce the sector s emission and contribute to the industry s net revenues and growth. The analysis of the power sector shows how the country can expand power generation and broaden access to electricity while reducing associated emissions, through renewable energy, energy effi ciency, and lower-carbon technologies in thermal power generation. Finally, this analysis assesses the expected growth in CO2 emissions from on-road transport under a normal business development scenario up to the year 2035, and it identifi es actions at national and local levels that would reduce this growth, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors outlines several actions that the Nigerian government could undertake to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy."

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world's 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades. This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilising emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate -resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programmes, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.